From the Desk of Eagles Outsider Barry Bowe

For me, another bad showing in last week’s football pool for Week 10 – only three games right. A week of one strange upset after another:

• Lions beating Packers in Green Bay.
• Bears beating Rams in St. Louis.
• Redskins crushing Saints.
• Dolphins beating Eagles in Philly.
• Chiefs throttling Broncos in Denver.
• Texans dominating Bengals in Cincinnati.

The winner only had eight right – an all-time low.

So let’s get back on the ball with tonight’s Thursday Night Football.

Thursday – November 19

8:25 – Titans (2-7 & 2-2 Away) at Jaguars (3-6 & 2-2 Home)

Jaguars are 3-point favorites at home with an O/U = 42 points.

I see tonight’s game as a Head-Scratcher – yet disagree with both the point-spread and the over/under. Both teams have yet to win in the AFC South and neither team plays defense very well:

• The Jags have given up more points – 255 – than any other team in the entire AFC. That’s better than 28 points per game.
• The Titans have given up 214 points – which is just under 24 points per game.

Add ‘em up and you get a combined 52 points allowed.

Now let’s take a look at how the Titans and Jags play offense:

• The Jaguars have scored 192 points – which is a touch over 21 points per game.
• The Titans have scored less points – 169 – than any other team in the entire AFC. That’s just under 19 points per game.

Add ‘em up and you get 40 points scored.

Take the midpoint of the 52 points allowed and 40 points scored and you get 46 points – which is four points higher than the odd-makers’ over/under of 42 points. In my opinion, the lack of defense will push the point total even higher.

Against a common opponent – the Buccaneers – the Titans scored 42 points and the Jags scored 31 points. That’s 73 total points. While the point total may not reach 73, it should easily surpass the 42 over/under.

So if I were betting the game, I’d play the over.

But in my football pool, I’m picking the Titans because I think Marcus Mariota will have a big game.

UPDATE – Titans were leading 13-9 with less than 4:00 remaining, but blew the game when they allowed Rashad Greene return a punt 63 yards that set up a 5-yard TD pass from Blake Bortles to Julius Thomas and the Jaguars took a 16-13 lead.

Phillip Supernaw fumbled on the next play from scrimmage. The Jags recovered and added a field goal to increase the lead to 19-13.

With a little better than 2:00 remaining, Marcus Mariota moved the Titans deep into Jags’ territory. But just 23 yards away from a winning touchdown, Mariota was sacked and time ran out.

By the way, I was way off on the over/under.

Sunday – November 22

1:00 – Raiders (4-5 & 2-2 Away) at Lions (2-7 & 1-3 Home)

EVEN game with O/U of 50 points.

Despite upsetting the Packers last week, the Lions are a bad football team.

Despite hitting a bump in the road last week against the Vikings, the Raiders are an up-and-coming team.

I see the Raiders in an easy win over the Lions.

1:00 – Colts (4-5 & 2-2 Away) at Falcons (6-3 & 3-1 Home)

Falcons are 5-point favorites with O/U of 47½ points.

The Falcons are fighting for a Wild Card spot.

The Colts were a so-so team with Andrew Luck. Without him, they’re not good.

I’m taking the Falcons to win easy.

1:00 – Jets (5-4 & 2-2 Away) at Texans (4-5 & 2-2 Home)

NO LINE or O/U.

The Jets are beginning to sag and head coach Todd Bowles starting pushing the panic button last week in a 22-17 loss to the Bills.

Meanwhile the Texans found a way to upset the Bengals last week and move into a first-place tie in the AFC South. With the Colts poised to lose this week to the Falcons, the Texans could take sole possession of first place with a win on Sunday – at home.

I pick the Texans in a hard-fought game.

1:00 – Buccaneers (4-5 & 2-2 Away) at Eagles (4-5 & 2-2 Home)

Eagles are 7-point favorites with O/U of 45 points.

How could the Eagles be 7-point favorites against anyone?

I believe Mark Sanchez will play better than Sam Bradford – but that isn’t say all that much.

The Bucs are coming off a last-second win over the Cowboys last week. I don’t think the Bucs or quarterback Jameis Winston are very good – but I believe that the Eagles – my Eagles – will find ways to lose the game.

Chip Kelly is doing a horrendous job of coaching.

I reluctantly pick against my heartthrobs and pick the Bucs to win – but I hope I’m wrong.

1:00 – Broncos (7-2 & 4-1 Away) at Bears (4-5 & 1-3 Home)

EVEN game with O/U of 41 points.

How woulda believed this would be an EVEN game?

The Bears were given up for dead two weeks into the season.

On the other hand, the Broncos looked like one of the best teams in the AFC until two weeks ago.

I see the Bears winning this game at home.

1:00 – Rams (4-5 & 1-3 Away) at Ravens (2-7 & 1-3 Home)

Ravens are 2½-point favorites with O/U of 41½ points.

Jeff Fisher benched Nicky Football for this game. Too bad, Fisher didn’t bench himself. He’s been a bigger problem than the quarterback.

The Ravens are a bad team.

Yet I’ll take the Ravens to beat the Rams with Case Keenum replacing Foles.

1:00 – Cowboys (2-7 & 1-3 Away) at Dolphins (4-5 & 1-2 Home)

EVEN game with O/U of 47 points.

Tony Romo is back – whoop-de-doo. Too late to help.

Believe it or not, the Dolphins – at 4-5 – could play themselves into a Wild Card spot with a few wins.

I believe the Dolphins get one of those wins on Sunday.

1:00 – Redskins (4-5 & 0-4 Away) at Panthers (9-0 & 5-0 Home)

Panthers are 8½-point favorites with O/U of 44½ points.

The Redskins and Kirk Cousins were incredible in their 47-14 trouncing of the Saints last week. But was it a fluke?

Meanwhile, the Panthers are still somehow undefeated at 9-0 – but I still don’t think they’re that good.

I’m hoping last week’s performance by the Redskins was no fluke. So I’m making the Redskins my upset special this week.

4:05 – Chiefs (4-5 & 2-3 Away) at Chargers (2-7 & 2-3 Home)

Chiefs are 3-point favorites with O/U of 44½ points.

Two bad teams.

But I see the Chargers as being worse than the Chiefs.

I take the Chiefs to win a game I couldn’t care less about.

4:25 – Packers (6-3 & 2-2 Away) at Vikings (7-2 & 4-0 Home)

EVEN game with O/U of 44 points.

Unlike Las Vegas, I don’t see this as an EVEN game.

The bottom dropped out on the Packers three weeks ago – after they looked like the best team in the NFC for the first six weeks of the season. Blame Jordy Nelson’s injury on the letdown. For crying out loud, they lost to the dreadful Lions last week on the unfrozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

On the other hand, the Vikings continue to trend upwards.

I see the Vikings winning this week.

4:25 – 49ers (3-6 & 0-4 Away) at Seahawks (4-5 & 2-2 Home)

Seahawks are 13½-point favorites with O/U of 39½ points.

The 49ers are bad – and I don’t either know or care who’s playing quarterback this week.

The Seahawks need wins to stay in the running for a Wild Card spot.

I take the Seahawks in an easy win.

8:30 – Bengals (8-1 & 4-0 Away) at Cardinals (7-2 & 3-1 Home)

Cardinals are 5-point favorites with O/U of 48½ points.

Who woulda believed the undefeated Bengals woulda lost to the lowly Texans last Monday night?

Not me.

But I believe the Bengals will make it two losses in a row this week.

The Cardinals have become one of the best teams in the NFC.

I pick the Cards to win in a tough game.

Monday – November 23

8:30 – Bills (5-4 & 3-1 Away) at Patriots (9-0 & 5-0 Home)

Patriots are 8½-point favorites with O/U of 48 ½ points.

The Bills will try hard to pull off the upset.

The Patriots will go about their business trying to win.

The Patriots are a much better team, so I pick the Patriots to win.

VALUE PICKS

So there you have my picks for Week 11.

As always, they’re free of charge and worth every penny.

In addition to being the official Eagles Outsider for BlameMyFather.com, Barry Bowe is also the author of:

• Born to Be Wild
• 1964 – The Year the Phillies Blew the Pennant
• 12 Best Eagles QBs
• Birth of the Birds
• Soon-to-be-published sexy, police procedural Caribbean Queen
• Soon-to-be-published novel Stosh Wadzinski
• Soon-to-be-published novel Polish Widow