Surprise Surprise Surprise

Checked in on FanDuel late last night to see if my starting lineup for tomorrow needed any tweaking – and got a surprise surprise surprise.

The Fantasy Baseball season at FanDuel starts today, Sunday, and not tomorrow, Monday.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs kick off the 2015 MLB season at Wrigley Field at 8 p.m. on Sunday night. To accommodate Sunday’s lone game, FanDuel is offering fantasy baseball contests that package Sunday’s game with the four day games on Monday.

So I need a pitcher and eight hitters to kick off the season – and the selection of the starting pitcher is the top priority.

Finding My Pitcher

First, I sorted the starting pitchers based on their FFPGs (fantasy points per game).

That put five pitchers on top – David Price, Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright, and Cole Hamels. Even though I’m a Phillies fan and like Cole Hamels, I eliminated him right off the bat for three reasons:

(1) Las Vegas rated the Phillies as the worst team in baseball at 250/1 while at the same time rating the Red Sox as co-favorites with the Angels to win the AL pennant at 6/1.

To me, the odds say that the Red Sox should beat the Phillies.

(2) The Phillies rarely give Hamels enough run-support to win – he was 9-9 last season.

(3) Hamels was a slow starter last season. Didn’t win his first game until May 17.

Put them together and they spell “no win for Cole Hamels.”

Next, I eliminated Masahiro Tanaka based on breaking news from Tanaka’s very own lips. See “How hitters can – and likely will – expose gas-less Tanaka.”

That leaves me with Price, Lester, and Wainwright. So I rated them according to last season’s first outing and how they did against today’s opponent.

Based on those figures, Adam Wainwright looks like the best bet to me and – if I’m right – his $9,600 salary is a slight bargain compared to Price’s $10,600 and Lester’s $10,100. So I’m going with Adam Wainwright.

That leaves me with $25,400 in salary for my eight hitters – or $3,175 per hitter.

Finding My Hitters

To find my hitters, the first thing I do is a reverse-sort of the starting pitchers – now ranking them from worst to first according to their FFPGs.

That gives me Kyle Kendrick, Clay Buchholtz, Andrew Hutchinson, and Chris Tillman on top as the worst pitchers. If possible, I want my hitters batting against one of those four guys. So I’m going to give preferential treatment to hitters from the Brewers, Phillies, Yankees, and Rays.

Catcher

I compared the Brewers Jonathan Lucroy, the Phillies Carlos Ruiz, the Yankees Brian McCann, and the Rays Jon Jaso. First, I ranked them via their FFPGs.

Jonathan Lucroy has the highest FFPG at 2.5 – but he also has the highest salary at $3,800. To my way of thinking, the extra 0.5 FFPG isn’t worth the highest salary of the four. So I eliminated Lucroy.

Next I ranked the catchers according to salary.

Carlos Ruiz has the lowest salary at $2,500. He also has the lowest FFPG at 1.9 – but it’s only 0.1 FFPG lower than both Jon Jaso and Brian McCann at 2.0. To me, saving $600 in salary is worth sacrificing the potential 0.1 FFPG.

So I take Carlos Ruiz as my catcher and slightly bump my Avg/Player to $3,271.

Remember – You must select players from at least three teams and you are not permitted to select four players from the same team.

I then went position by position.

First Base

I took Adam Lind at first over James Loney because he plays for Brewers and will be batting against Kyle Kendrick.

Second Base

Scooter Gennett is my second-sacker because he’ll be facing Kendrick.

Third Base

I went on the cheap at third with Cody Asche – hoping he’ll get a hit or two off of Clay Buchholtz.

Shortstop

For the extra $100, I tood Asdrubal Cabrera for his 2.2 FFPG.

Outfield

After splurging on the two highest-priced outfielders in Jose Bautista ($4,800 and 3.4 FFPG) and Carlos Gomez ($4,300 and 3.2 FPPG), I was left with $2,700 for my last outfielder. I took Shane Victorino for $2,700 and came out even.

Starting Lineup

Sometime before first pitch, I’ll check to see if any of my players are benched or injured. But I have no one in tonight’s game, so it doesn’t matter – and we’ll see what happens.

Last-Minute Changes

Made some late changes to my lineup on a whim:

(1) Found the Phillies CF Odubel Herrera masquerading at 2B – Odubel comes highly touted by my buddy Rickie Ricardo, the voice of the Yankees on Spanish-speaking radio. Odubel replaced Scooter Gennett.

(2) Replaced my entire outfield of Juan Bautista, Carlos Gomez, and Shane Victorino with Jorge Soler, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Matt Holliday – which freed enough cap space to upgrade at catcher.

(3) Carlos Ruiz out and Russell Martin in.